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2010–11 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2010–11 South Pacific cyclone season was a near average tropical cyclone season, with seven tropical cyclones and five severe tropical cyclones developing during the season. The season ran from November 1, 2010 until April 30, 2011, though if any tropical cyclones had developed between July 1, 2010 and June 30, 2011, the official ''tropical cyclone year'', they would have been counted towards the season's total. Within the South Pacific basin tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Nadi, Fiji, north of 25°S, and to the south the Meteorological Service of New Zealand's Tropical Cyclone Warning Center in Wellington, New Zealand. Any disturbances forming in the region were designated with a sequential number suffixed by the letter F. In addition, the United States Military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center unofficially monitored parts of the basin during the season, where any systems judged to have achieved tropical storm strength or greater received a number suffixed with the letter P. RSMC Nadi and TCWC Wellington both use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale, and measure wind speeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC measures sustained winds over a period of one minute which can be applied to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. Seven named storms formed or moved into the South Pacific basin during the 2010–11 season, the strongest of which was Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma in late January.
==Seasonal outlooks==
Ahead of the cyclone season, RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2010. The outlook took into account the moderate-strong La Nina conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had La Nina conditions occurring during the season.〔 The outlook called for a normal or above average number of tropical cyclone occurring during the season, with nine to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of nine.〔 At least three of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while one was expected to become a category 4 severe tropical cyclone.〔 In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, RSMC Nadi and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.〔〔 The BoM issued 2 seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region between 142.5°E – 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E – 120°W.〔 They noted that the western region had a 79% chance of being above average activity with seven to eight tropical cyclones expected to form, compared to an average of five tropical cyclones.〔 The eastern region had a 33% chance of being above average with five to six tropical cyclones predicted, compared to an average of seven tropical cyclones.〔
Within their outlook RSMC Nadi predicted that between seven and nine tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 8.9 cyclones.〔 They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located within the Coral Sea area near to and to the west of the International Dateline.〔 This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region.〔 The Island Climate Update outlook assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory.〔〔 As the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located within the Coral Sea area near to and to the west of the International Dateline, normal or slightly above normal activity was expected for island nations within the Coral Sea.〔〔 It was also predicted that the risk of tropical cyclones affecting island nations located to the east of the International Date Line would be reduced during the season.〔 It was predicted that Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, New Zealand and the Solomon Islands had an elevated chance of being affected by a single or multiple tropical cyclones.〔 Fiji and Tonga were predicted to have a near normal chance, while other island nations had a low or reduced chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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